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Topic: The regional clan politics(Somaliland)and the NUF syndrome (article) (Read 638 times)
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Dhoodimeer
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Posts: 158
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June 05, 2005 - 12:50
The regional clan politics and the NUF syndrome
Perhaps the most visible sign of the political impasse in Hargeisa is the palpable inferiority complex plaguing government ministers who know they are no match for the suave, polished leadership of the main opposition party KULMIYE and its veteran Leader Mr. Silanyo. The actions of these small men was typified by the infamous “Radio Station in reading glasses” assault launched by the hapless Interior Minsiter on Kulmiye HQ last month. This comical farce, in which the most elite units of Somaliland police force was utilised , clearly illuminates the inherent fear and mistrust of Kulmiye power and influence in the shaky government circles.
But there are growing signs that Kulmiye is also nursing deep-seated complexes of its own, and they might even go deeper than anything affecting the current members of the UDUB establishment. Kulmiyites are justified to wonder how on earth they can come to power if the presence of Silanyo, ably supported by a whole clutch of mainly eastern apparatchiks and former SNM veterans and with widespread nation-wide electoral base still failed to defeat a far lesser candidate with none of the associations of the struggle for freedom and sorely lacking the far-reaching friendships, connections and links that were at the feet of Silanyo and his dazzlingly smooth party machine.
They further fear that once Silanyo leaves the scene whoever replaces him will be even less likely to hand them the palace keys.
Some of the more pessimistic K insiders are already quietly muttering the dreaded N word. The most prominent of this desperado group was the breathtakingly opportunistic Mr. Abdullahi Sifir who simply packed his bags for Nairobi few months after Kulmiye lost the Somaliland polls. According to insiders, the clever Sifir was instrumental in convincing Silanyo who was seriously considering retiring from politics at the time to stand for Kulmiye confident that the revered former SNM head will simply sashay to victory making him, a highly experienced civil servant and fellow Habar Jelo clansman, his right hand man. As we all know things didn’t quite work out that way.
Mr. Sifir is now dancing the Gablay Shimbir with the most shadowy of Mogadishu warlords while being heaped with humiliation after humiliation by Gheddi and Abdulalhi Yusuf. To his credit Mr. Sifir seems to have discovered tenacity and is hanging in there perhaps hoping that by playing the spittoon he will ingratiate himself with the Mogadishu thugs and gunslingers who are most likely to win any Mexican stand-off with Yusuf and Gheddi.
The N word refers to the NUF party which was one of the three main parties that contested the 1960 election. The parallels with Kulmiye are eerily similar: both were led by charismatic Habr Jelo politicians, both attracted huge early excitement and both failed to deliver at the polls. In another parallel that will not please Kulmiye stalwarts, popular mythology then associated NUF and its leader Michael Mariano with the hasty, almost undignified rush to give away our independence to Mogadishu which we came to regret almost immediately. In reality this was unfair and untrue since Mariano was among the few politicians urging reflection and caution at the time but in politics and history myths are as powerful as facts and this particular mud stuck.
What is at the root of this fear and instrumental in the failure of both NUF and Kulmiye is that Somaliland politics are essentially regional affairs tinged with sharp clannist edge. The more realistic members of Kulmiye understand that in a straightforward contest between East and West the latter will win hands down. This is more than a simple matter of numbers. Habr Jelo on its own cannot deliver victory but neither can any other clan with the possible exception of a fully united Habr Awal front something that is unlikely to happen. So what is needed are cross clan alliances and this is where Habr Jelo has a problem: it’s only natural allies are the Dhulbahantes and like all border clans the world over, the Dhulka have divided loyalties and like to play on at least two green pitches at any given time. This makes them the most unreliable of allies as demonstrated by their last shrieking boycott of the 2003 Presidential elections. The Habr Yonis considers them natural competitors and the Jelos have never bothered to court them or attempted to forge political links with them despite sharing the second biggest metropolis in the country with them. That is perhaps because they see their HY neighbours as rather uppity lot with power dreams of their own based not on current capabilities but on past successes and some say exaggerated glories. This is a strategic miscalculation by both of them since the only chance either stand to shake the Western establishment of (most) Sacad Muse and Gadabursi with occasional support from the Isse Muse and possibly some of the Hargeisa Garhajis is to present a united Burao front. Alas those who know Burao politics are not hopeful of HY/HJ détente anytime this millennium.
But there is a ray of hope for Kulmiye even after Silanyo. Democracy has a way of overcoming clan loyalties and forging improbable blocs and unlikely alliances. More importantly Somalilanders are becoming sophisticated voters almost by the day and people will probably vote for the next President almost purely on merit. The most encouraging sign for all of us was the fact that some voters in Borame voted for Kulmiye last time while many Burawis swooned for Riyale.
The NUF syndrome is unlikely to be repeated so it is time for Kulmiye to stop indulging in political shenanigans like seeking unjustified Impeachments and start building alliances beyond their immediate core support.
Guled Ismail
halyey@btopenworld.com
© 2005 Awdalnews Network
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DARWIISH LAND, Somalia
DARWIISH LAND, Somalia
DARWIISH LAND, Somalia
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